By 2035, the market share of European cloud and AI computing providers in the European market is expected to reach 30%. This is the stated objective of the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA).
It sounds like the result of an analysis or a forecast.
It is not.
In the impact assessment, the 30% figure appears as a target. The document then examines which growth rates would be required to reach that outcome.
The impact assessment itself makes this point. The CAGR assumptions do not constitute a forecast. They were chosen to broadly match the desired outcome. (Impact Assessment Annexes (SWD(2026) 503), Annex 4, Section 8)
The analysis does not generate the target.
The target generates the analysis.
This shifts the real question.
Not:
Will Europe reach a 30% market share?
But:
Under which conditions could 30% become conceivable in the first place?
The impact assessment describes in considerable detail the conditions under which 30% could become conceivable. It points to demand aggregation, public procurement, sovereignty requirements, lower switching costs and specific support measures. (Impact Assessment Annexes (SWD(2026) 503), Annex 4, Section 8)
What remains unanswered is how those conditions are actually supposed to be created.
That is where it becomes clear whether a target merely appears plausible or is actually achievable.